Tag Archives: NFL

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NitPicks Week 9: Getting Some

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  1. This is a comparative down week in college football. There are just two matchups between top 25 teams, and one of those four teams probably shouldn’t be ranked. Having said that Ole Miss going down to the Bayou to take on the Tigers at night is the toughest test on the schedule for any of the contenders. USC/Utah is the other one and…I mean….great, I guess. Whatever.  Other than that, if there is going to be any movement in the playoff picture in advance of the first rankings, it is going to have to come from a rival stepping up, like Penn State against Ohio State, Michigan against Michigan State, any of the SEC games (Kentucky? South Carolina?) I’m sure it will be great, and that college football will happen (upsets, basically), but it lacks the marquee matchups that we had the past few weekends.
  2. I don’t trust the Champions’ League. I enjoy picking the Premier League games, and even some other domestic league games, but for whatever reason (I’d like to think it isn’t just because I don’t really know soccer, although it’s definitely because I don’t really know soccer), the Champions League games seem like a crapshoot for me. It’s too bad, since it gives you some mid-weekday action to work with, but it just isn’t worth it because I always lose, so I stay away.
  3. It is time for your weekly “OHMIGODTHECOWBOYSAREGOOD!’ post. This week: we have a chance to go to 7-1, and we get to do it against…Colt McCoy! That’s the good news. The bad news is that it’s going to suck when we go 1-7 for the rest of the season after that to inevitably finish at 8-8, because even when they look like the best team in the league, that’s what the Cowboys do. Still, though, may as well enjoy it while it lasts! HOW BOUT THEM COWBOYS!
  4. I had my laptop fall off a table and break this week, and now I need to find a way to transfer content from the old hard drive to my new computer. I don’t even have a joke/point/complaint here. I just desperately need my school outlines, and I’m hoping someone can tell me how to do this. Okaythanks.
  5. So out of AJ McCarron, Johnny Manziel, Aaron Murray and Connor Shaw. I, for one am excited to see all four of them get a shot in the pros and to see how many can make it. So with that in mind, the first rookie SEC quarterback to start an NFL game in 2014 will be…oh goddammit. It’s Zach Mettenberger. Was he even good at LSU? His biggest career win was 6-3 against Bama in 2012. Sick job dude. Seriously, the SEC sent four STUDS into the NFL last year, and we end up with the Cajun (but not really because I guess he is from Georgia) Curt Cousins under center before any of them. The lesson here is clear: projecting rookie quarterbacks first year performance is basically pointless.
  6. I miss Johnny. Not even so much in that I wish they would put him in in Cleveland. I miss Saturday Johnny.  I knew I would and I wrote about it last year, but yeah.  I do. I miss this Johnny:

  1. Ever since I wrote about how college is where the logical picks are, and that there is no real advantage to any of the NFL lines, I have been crushing NFL games. I’m petrified to even type this, as it inevitably means that my NFL picks will now go to hell, but that’s a hit that I will have to take in the name of content for you, the reader. For instance, last week I got crushed in college (see below), but doubled down on the Cowboys and Cardinals (favorites, what’s up), and ended up breaking even. The lesson, as always: fickle bunch, the gambling gods.
  2. I was ready to pick the Chargers (+9) on the road tonight. That’s a ton of points for a really good team, and I’m still tempted to do it, but when I started to write it up, my justification was ‘but really they probably lose by 30.’ I think it’s fair to say that I am in my own head. Either way, I’m picking the Chargers tonight for monopoly money purposes, but I’m not going to throw it in the picks, mainly because these Thursday night games are so sloppy that a 9 point cover feels like a field goal.
  3. I got killed last week, which is what I get for making 10 college football picks while I was riding a stationary bike at 8:00 AM after being out late the night before. At least I got them in, though. This week, I need to bounce back, so I’m putting more time in the picks, and actually including some NFL games. 4-6 last week, but still 43-38 on the year.

The PICKS!

I. UConn (+28) over ECU

We have reached the saturation point with ECU.  Their offense is great, but they are getting a little more love than they probably deserve, and UConn is just notterrible enough to keep it within a few scores.

II. Cal (+19) over Oregon

Cal has the offense to be competitive in every game.  Oregon has been great with a healthy line, but I think that Cal will push them.

III. Boise State (-7) over BYU

BYU’s intimidation factor minus Taysom Hill is approximately zero. 

IV. TCU (-23) over Texas Tech

Hey, Kliff Kingsbury is awesome and charismatic and we love him! His team couldn’t stop a nosebleed.  They suck.  Lay the points.

V.  West Virginia (+1) over Oklahoma State

Call your guy and tell him you don’t need his charity. West Virginia wins outright. Not that this is a bold prediction what with a 1 point line but still.

VI. Arizona (-2.5) over Washington State

Arizona is a missed field goal away from being undefeated. Washington State is 2-5/Washington State.  This line is nonsense.  Book it while you can.

VII. South Carolina (-19) over Auburn

I don’t see SC getting an upset at Jordan-Haare, but that’s a ton of wiggle room.

VIII. Oregon State (+13) over Stanford

13 points is a big ask of an offense that has been downright inept at times. 

IX. Seahawks (-6) over Panthers

I’ve said many times that Seattle isn’t the same team away from Seattle, but I will take the defending champs with (one would think) a fire lit under them over a supremely average Carolina team.

X. Packers (Pick) over Saints

Saints are 2-0 at home but the Packers are rolling.

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Nit Picks Week 5: 60% of the Time, It Works…Every Time

  1. Another week is in the books, and we have another NitPicks coming at you right now, meaning that I need to choose whether to start with an NFL point or a college point. The verdict? Neither. I’m going to start with my favorite subject: ME.

We are officially into the portion of the season where it’s getting weird.  The picks overall record has climbed to 24 and 16.  Obviously, I’m happy with that record, and if you are going 66% against the spread you’re making money, but to do it with four consecutive 6-4 weeks is getting weird.  I even tweeted this after I dropped to 1-1 on Thursday night:

Which isn’t relevant to what I’m talking about but I thought was funny (although my subsequent 0-3 fantasy weekend was not).  I also tweeted this, which was more on point:

When I can call my own record based on a 1-1 Thursday, you know it’s getting weird.

The most important takeaway from this whole episode is this: Nit Picks needs a new subtitle.  I don’t know how you can give a subtitle to a weekly column, but there is one that is simply too not to use. You probably know where I’m going, since it is right above, but here it is:

Nit Picks: 60% of the time they work…every time.

  1. The disadvantage of writing a once a week column on what are essentially viral topics is that a lot of times, I can be a bit late to something. That’s the case here, but it’s still worth mentioning that this is Steve Adazzio’s world and it’s only by his good graces that the rest of us don’t have to pay him rent.

 

Man, I wanna be a dude.

  1. I don’t know if this is a controversial take or not, because the backlash against Goodell has been so strong, but I think it is okay to root for Ray Rice to win his appeal. He is an aging player with declining production at a position that has come to be viewed as interchangeable, and he comes with a PR CIRCUIS. There really won’t be any harm done if he wins, and it would be nice to see the arbitrary and reactionary way in which Goodell dished out the ban get called out.
  2. I swear I looked up when Nashville was going to come back like 3 days ago and it said that it was mid-October, but turns out it was last night. I take no shame in saying WOOOHOO! I’m a little pissed that I didn’t know before hand, but I’m way more fired up that with that and South Park back in the fold, you can add Wednesdays to Thursdays through Sunday (football) when I get to ignore the world and watch TV.

Two top 4 (playoff team) lists.  One based on what teams have done this year, the other based on where I think we will be at the end of the year:

  1. If the playoffs started today:

1. Alabama

2. Oklahoma

3. Oregon

4. (wait for it…) the Duke Blue Devils

Alabama and Oklahoma are more or less no-brainers. I wanted to punish Oregon for playing Wazzu close, but they are undefeated and they might have the best win on the board. Tough to pass on A&M but they have only played 1 good team, and I’m not sure the Gamecocks are any good anyways. Tie break goes to not wanting two teams from one conference.

  1. When it’s all said and done:

1. Alabama

2. Oklahoma

3. Oregon

4. Florida State

Ultimately, I think that Bama gets by Auburn and A&M to win the SEC.  Too many weapons.  Too deep.  To well coached. Oregon has at least two tough ones left, but it’s hard to say they aren’t the favorite if you’re making projections. Oklahoma I believe, will get past Baylor (more on them in a sec) which leaves Florida State.  I don’t want to see it, but I’m just not sure I see a loss on their schedule, and even a 1 loss ACC Championship probably gets them in.

  1. Speaking of Baylor, I can’t tell if I love or hate what Coach Briles and that program does down there with regards to scheduling. I definitely respect it though They are just playing the game.  They know that if they win the Big 12 and run the table, they are going to make the playoff, so you know who they are going to play non-conference? CUPCAKES. They are going to steadfastly refuse to play anyone who even has a chance to challenge them. It sucks for fans, but you can’t claim that it isn’t smart. (I would include Duke in this category, but it isn’t really their fault that Kansas is as bad as they are.  At least they scheduled Big 12.)

 

  1. This is me not saying anything about a quarterback that may or may not play for an NFL franchise in the bay area and who may or may not have gone to a school that frequently plays Boise State, and who I may or may not hate, because he may or may not be in the process of being exposed and I may or may not be afraid that if I say anything about him (which is NOT what I’m doing right now) I could end up jinxing it.
  2. Don’t look now, but while everyone is talking about BYU busting the New Year’s Party (despite their fact that they have a late October game that could be problematic), Marshall is sitting at 3-0. They have scored 40+ in every game and have only given up 20+ once (a 44-27 win over Miami-OH). What’s more, their toughest test remaining is…actually I have no idea how to end that sentence. Based solely on record, its 3-1 OLD DOMINION (based on power rankings it’s probably Western Kentucky at 79 according to CBS, but they were as low as 94 in some rankings). Basically all they have to do is get off the bus to run the tables (on the 126th hardest schedule in D1-A), so watch out for a BIG strength of schedule, provided they don’t trip on a stray cupcake.

10. THE PICKS!

Best of luck choosing which 6 you should follow.

(Also, I’m probably going to get this up on Friday, that’s fine though because as I look at it/write this on Thursday, all of the Thursday lines are hot garbage. Now watch my bets go 3-0 and me regret not throwing in Arizona to win outright.)

I. Wyoming (+28) over Michigan State

Pokes are 3-1, and while they lost to Oregon by more than this 28, Michigan State doesn’t have the ability to run it up the way the Ducks do.

II. Penn State (-10) over Northwestern

Christian Hackenberg is the real.

III. Georgia (-17) over Tennessee

Georgia had a hiccup against South Carolina.  It was a really bad day and it will hurt if not kill them in the playoff picture, but you can’t convince me that they aren’t one of the best teams in the nation. Tennessee has a ton of true freshman getting playing time, look for them to struggle between the hedges.

4. Texas A&M (-10) over Arkansas

Arkansas is hot in the streets, but I’m pretty sure that as much as we all love Kliff Kingsbury, I’m pretty sure that TexTech isn’t very good. I like Kenny Hill to run it up on the Hogs.

V. Duke (+7) over Miami

This line is downright insanity. 100% reputation based..  Miami has been shaky at best, and looks every bit like the .500 team that they are.  Duke, on the other hand, won their division last year and has blown everyone out getting to 4-0.  When I glanced at it, I thought that this line was Duke (-7)…and I still loved it. Lock of the century of the year of the week right here.

VI. Boise State (-13) over Air Force

I’m not a homer, it just works every.  Time.

VII. Notre Dame (-10) over Syracuse

Everett Goldston has this Irish team looking legit, and I have no reason to believe that Syracuse isn’t a dumpster fire.

VIII. Lions (-2) over Jets

Jets have yet to look impressive, or really even competent. Not going to touch them against a good team getting less than a score.

IX. Steelers (-7.5) over Buccaneers

Write this down. In pen. The Bucs are BAD. REALLY, REALLY bad. Please do yourself a favor and bet against them.

X. Falcons (-3) over Vikings

Rookie quarterback, no AD and a team that dropped like 80 last week? Yeah I’ll let you have the three.

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NitPicks Week 4: I’M DONE!

I’m done.  I’m officially done.  I am like a girl at a Beyonce concert, in that I can’t even.  I have lost my ability to even.  I may even die.  Because I’m out of outrage.  If you came here looking for talk about suspensions, coverups or arrests, go somewhere else. This is probably going to be a shorter NitPicks, but my promise to you is that the names of NFL running backs that are not playing this weekend will not be brought up.

Let’s get into it. Continue reading

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Nit Picks Week 3: Drama, Drama, Drama

Neither Johnny Chase, nor Kevin Dillon are mentioned here, but I called this post 'Drama, Drama, Drama,' and Entourage was awesome.

Neither Johnny Chase, nor Kevin Dillon are mentioned here, but I called this post ‘Drama, Drama, Drama,’ and Entourage was awesome.

I changed the default settings on my Microsoft Word this week so that when I open a new document I’m automatically in Times New Roman.  Absolute game changer.  I tell you that because I never know what to say in these intros and that’s as good a way as any to break the silence

  1. The thing that stuck out the most to me this past weekend is this: Every team wants to go to an up tempo game where you air it out, stretch the field and make big plays. There is talk about how the game is changing, about how the hurry up, big play, offensive juggernaut style is the way of the future, and it isn’t wrong.  The problem is, when teams get inside the 10, they look absolutely lost trying to punch it in, because their style of play just doesn’t work in short yardage situations.

    Guess what, offensive coordinators of America? Unless you have like 1 of 4 receivers in the pros (maybe a few more in college), a corner fade is a REALLY EFFING LOW percentage play.  Stop trying it on first and second down every time you are trying to punch it in for 6.

    The most obvious reason is simple.  Teams are running offenses inside of scoring territory that have little resemblance to what they’re running between the 20s, and when your entire scheme changes trying to end a drive, the results aren’t likely to be great.

    I was tempted to dig into this even deeper, and raise questions about a general move away from the run (I do think that the abilities of D-linemen are moving away from the abilities of O-lines to run block), but I’ll wait to see if it continues before I get into that. Suffice for now to say that it looked extraordinarily sloppy in both the college and the pro game this far.

    Lastly, I will say that it’s possible that this is an early season thing; that is a result of defenses being ahead of offenses schematically. That’s entirely possible, but there are other factors that could explain it, so we will have to wait and see.

  2. I’m so sick of the Ray Rice thing so I am going to make this as fast as I possibly can.  It isn’t incumbent upon the NFL or the Ravens to investigate one of their players.  That is 100% on the Atlantic City Police and the District Attorney, who had subpoena power to see the video and the authority to press charge. In not doing so, they put the other organizations in the position of having to punish a player who was not charged and prosecuted, or risk looking extraordinarily bad, which they do now.

    I’m not saying that they didn’t mess up (what happened could reasonably have been inferred from the available video), but I place 99% of my scorn on the authorities whose job it actually is to enforce this sort of thing.

    There is a Pandora’s box of issues that I could get into, because a million things about this make me angry, but one is the incessant coverage of it completely overshadowing what is taking place in the sports world, so I will recuse from the issue here and get back to sports

  3. HOOOLLLYYYY JUMPIN, Big 10.  That is what could fairly be considered a worst case scenario.  If you were following the blog this weekend, you saw me post a .gif of a flaming dumpster, titled ‘live look at the Big10,’ which I thought summed it up nicely.  It looked for a moment like Sparty may be up to the task of bailing the conference out, but that was rendered unrealistic when Oregon pulled away.

    The conference was 7-6, which doesn’t sound that bad, but it was…oh it so was.  The top of the conference got killed in the three “prove it” games, looking simply overmatched in prime time national slots.  The contenders in the conference got embarrassed, and the perception of the conference was destroyed. For purposes of a national picture, that’s what is important.  On top of that, though, the lower half of the conference got just as embarrassed, if not more so.  It took a miracle play for Nebraska to get by McNeese State, Iowa squeaked by Ball State by just 4, and Illinois was in a 1 score game with Western Kentucky.  The bottom part of the conference then saw two non-power 5 losses, with Northern Illinois taking down Northwestern and Central Michigan knocking off Purdue. Only Wisconsin and Penn State took business as you would expect from a power conference (perhaps the third most impressive win on the day was Rutgers, who gave up 25 points to an 0-2 1-AA Howard).

    The “power 5 want to pull away and play each other, but the Big 10 is doing a bang up job of knocking down that argument.

  4. Just for kicks, and since everyone else seems to be doing it, here are my 4 playoff teams:

    Georgia, Oregon, Oklahoma, Florida State

    I’m not convinced that Florida State will get it done but it’s hard to find a loss on their schedule, and if they run the table they will be in.  Georgia looks stronger than Alabama right now, but that may as well just say ‘SEC Champion.’

  5. I started writing and working as for the Santa Clara Law School paper, The Advocate, as sports editor this week.  I will post a link to my first column (surprise! I’m complaining about college football) as well as an extended version of it here after they post the online version (which is just a .PDF).

    I will be writing in every issue, so you can expect 10/12 column links there.  If it is worthwhile, I will also post extended versions on the site. Just an update.

  6. Dammit. So I wrote the whole Ray Rice thing on Tuesday evening, and while not much has changed from that perspective, with the news coming out that the League received video, I now have a big issue with Goodell.  Can you see that video, suspend the guy 2 games, and still keep your job? Maybe. Can you see that video, suspend the guy 2 games, claim you never saw the video then suspend him indefinitely and then have it come out that you were given the video despite your claims that you tried and failed to get it? Absolutely not.  Later, Rog.

    For what it’s worth, it doesn’t matter if you didn’t actually see it.  The lie is just as bad, because you claimed to have done due diligence in trying to get the video.  In what universe do the police say they sent it, you say you didn’t got it, and the conversation just stops there?

  7. The more I think about it, the worse it gets.  I really did want to talk about other things this week, but Wednesday’s events have my mind working, so I put together a timeline of more or less what happened, in my suspicion, in the NFL office.

    That timeline was going to appear here, but as it approached 1000 words, I decided to break it off, so even though I wanted to avoid the story, I guess you should be on the lookout for a Ray Rice column

  8. This hasn’t been particularly light hearted thus far, so I may as well take this opportunity to point something out: there is a song out there, a reasonably popular one at that, called Donkey, and it’s about riding a donkey to a party.  I don’t really have anything to add to that, other than  that maybe typing it out will make it seem less ridiculous and…nope.  It didn’t.

    Not a terrible song, though.

  9. Look this has been a brutal week.  The Ray Rice story has dominated the news cycle to the extent that discrimination suits with the Mets and possible racism in Atlanta have been more or less pushed aside. The start of the football season and the MLB playoff race have been completely ignored the past few days

    This stuff is all important and with the way the story has gone down, I get it. Still though, as I said above, I am SO sick of the attention this is getting.  That’s why I’m so happy the weekend is here. Thank god we ca finally get back to what we enjoy about sports, the SPORTS themselves.

    So go out there this weekend, enjoy the football, have a few adult beverages if that is your style (collectively as sports fans we earned them), and hopefully next week we can come back and talk about what happened on the field.

  10. Bonus: Go read my sister’s stuff. You probably don’t care  about BC football, not many people do, but this one was a good read. http://bcheights.com/sports/2014/even-in-futile-situations-football-can-inspire-hope/

AAAAAANDDDD THE PICKS

6-4 LAST WEEK, 12-8 ON THE SEASON

I’ll take 60% all day every day, but I think we have a breakthrough week coming here.

It’s actually a tough week for college.  You’re either giving a TON of points, or betting on a team that you probably don’t think is very good, in most cases.

BYU vs. Houston UNDER 58

This was a push, so since I picked it before the column posted, I’m going to exclude it and pick 10 for the weekend.

Boise State (- 16) over UConn

‘Hey Jack, you’re such a homer.  You pick Boise every week.  You have no credibility.’

Yeah no kidding.  Don’t care. Like the Broncos on the road giving the points. Minus another 4th quarter meltdown this should be easy.

West Virginia (+4) over Maryland

This week is phase 1 of my ‘bet against the B1G and get rich’ scheme, and even though it feels weird to call Maryland a Big10 team, WV looked good against Bama, and even on the road I’m not sure why they’re getting points here.

Wyoming (+44) over Oregon

The first couple of weeks suggest that the Pokes may not be all that bad.  Oregon, obviously, is really good, but I think that they will give up a few points, and without getting to 65 or so, 44 is going to be a tough cover.

Georgia (-7) over South Carolina

I don’t think that this is going to be a rout, but Georgia’s running attack is formidable enough that if they get a lead, they can keep scoring by running the ball.  Giving up a single score seems like a great deal here.

Washington (-13) over Illinois

The Dawgs have NOT looked good thus far under Chris Peterson, with narrow wins over Hawai’i and Eastern Washington (THE RED!), which doesn’t seem to bode well heading into the hellscape that is the Pac12 North. Having said that I think they get it going in Cyler Miles’s second game under center. Also, Big10, bet against, rake money…you know.

UCLA (-8) over Texas

Texas has looked downright shaky thus far, and at a certain point the conclusion has to be that Mac Brown just left the cupboard bare for Coach Strong.

Texas A&M (-33) over Rice

Notre Dame beat Rice by 31, so it can be run up on them, and while 33 is a big number, it isn’t as daunting with an offense like A&M’s.

Arizona State (-16) over Colorado

Colorado is terrible, right? They got gashed by a CSU rushing game that couldn’t get anywhere in Boise, and as much as I would like to think that was all our rush D being impenetrable, I think the Buff’s D is just pretty bad. They also had trouble with the powerhouse that is UMass. Arizona State, on the other hand has 103 points in 2 games. This one could get ugly.

Cowboys (+3.5) over Titans

The Titans looked better than they are last week, and the Cowboys had a disastrous first quarter that caused everyone (myself included to an extent) to count them out.  A week ago they would have been favored, so I’m going against this overreaction line.

Cardinals (-2.5) over Giants

The Cardinals’ passing game looked pretty decent last week, which is all it should need to be against the Giants. Start Larry Fitzgerald if you’ve got him.

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The Case for JFF: 10 Reasons to Take a Chance on Manziel

0. This^

0. This^

My buddy texted me today, and asked me “how would you sell (Johnny Manziel) if you were his agent. What followed was a string of 5 or 6 texts amounting to a few hundred words.  Suffice to say that I had some ideas on the subject, and it made me wish that I had a place I could post them where people could see them.  I then remembered that I do, so I began writing this blog post.

So, if I were asked why a team should take a flyer on a 5’11” quarterback who plays schoolyard football, this would be my response: Continue reading

The Case for Kell

I am, in no way, an unbiased observer. I was at Kellen Moore’s first game against Idaho State four years ago, probably watched at least 46 to 50 of his 53 games for Boise State, and woe him the fact that my favorite college football program just finished the winningest (apparently not a word) four year stretch in college football history.  Having said that I believe this.  I believe that he can be an NFL success.

Continue reading